Meet Outguess — Predict against friends. No money. Bragging rights only

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Outguess

Predict against friends. No money. Bragging rights only.

What Outguess does

Outguess is a private predictions club for friends. Pose a question, set a deadline, send a link. Everyone weighs in with a probability. When the answer is known, Outguess shows the leaderboard by Brier score — no money, no betting, just calibrated bragging rights.

What's in v1:

— Pose a question: free-text question, resolution date, optional source link. — Invite by AirDrop / share sheet: the app generates a deep link a friend can open in their copy of Outguess. — Local-only ledger: each user keeps their own copy of their answers. Resolution is consensus (3+ friends agree the outcome) or one designated host marks it. — Brier-score leaderboard per group: your best forecaster, your most overconfident, your most-asked-about category.

Free. No money handled, no gambling functions. Just friends.

A look inside

Tap any screenshot to open the full-resolution version.

What's inside

• Pose a question — Free-text + deadline + optional source.
• Invite friends — Deep link via share sheet.
• Leaderboard — Brier-score per friend, per group.

Why we built it

Per Agentic Economy PDF §3.6: sports concentration triggers state regulators; many users want the FUN of prediction markets without the gambling concerns. Outguess sidesteps regulatory risk by removing money entirely.

What makes it different

Manifold is play-money markets (still feels like a casino). Metaculus is community-tournament (anonymous). Outguess is the small-group private club — you only see your friends.

Who it's for

Built for anyone who values fast, private, on-device software with a calm, focused UX.

In one line: Predict against friends. No money. Bragging rights only.

Try it

See the Outguess app page for the full feature list, the info table, and support links.

Use Outguess, found a bug, or have a feature request? Comments are open below — anonymous is fine.